WTO raises 2026 goods trade growth forecast to 3.9%
The WTO now expects world merchandise trade volume to grow 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, while its services forecast was cut to 3.3% for 2026.
In its 8 October 2026 outlook, the WTO lifted its 2026 forecast for world merchandise trade volume to 3.9%, from 1.9% in March, and expects 4.1% in 2027. Global GDP growth is forecast at 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027. The upgrade reflects supply chains adapting to energy and fertilizer disruptions and strong AI-related investment. Global container throughput rose 3.9% in the year to July.
Prospects remain uneven. Merchandise exports are projected to grow 9.9% in Asia in 2026 but fall 0.1% in Europe, with Europe's imports up only 0.5%. The services forecast was lowered to 3.3% from 4.8%, as the Middle East conflict weighs on transport and travel.